Re: Philosophy
confidence! |
Today was an object lesson in confidence, one of my favorite subjects, which is closely related to value creation, another one. (See this post about my friend Paul, and this one about Arnold Schwarzenegger.)
Please click here to read more...
entertainment |
... Posted after spending the entire day skiing at Loveland Pass, Colorado. A day well spent 8) ...
So I’m thinking about entertainment...
universal healthcare |
Here's a theory for you to disregard completely... Universal healthcare is bad. Please click to read more...
political system: fail |
Watching the primary results, I am struck once again by how screwed up our political process has become. Consider this; California is the most important state in the United States. We have the most people, some of the biggest cities, some of the most important and innovative industries. We are often the source of new trends in any field, from business to entertainment to education to politics. Yet, California is not involved in choosing our next President. Already we can see it will be Obama vs McCain, and California has had virtually no influence on this. In the fall, the election will be over before California's votes are counted. The candidates will ignore California all summer, knowing this. How screwed up is that?
Not to mention, our governor, who would likely be a serious contender for the nomination in either party, is not even eligible to run. How screwed up is that?
What should be done? First, all the primaries should take place at the same time. Second, the electoral college is an anachronism that should be eliminated; the President should be chosen by direct voting. That would fix everything. Well, maybe not everything but it would help. Oh, and immigrants who have been U.S. citizens and residents for twenty years should be able to run for President.
the metric magic |
I've been spending a few days worrying about measuring stuff. Like productivity and predictabilty.
Way back in late December, 2006, I worried about this, too, and wrote a long rambly email to my team about it. I just reread it, and thought it might be worth sharing. So here it is.
an uncomfortable truth |
On August 31, 2003, I posted IQ and Populations, which to this day remains my second most popular post. Unlike Tyranny of Email, my most popular article, the reaction is not generally positive. The post is popular in the sense of being widely linked, but unpopular in the sense of being widely disputed. While Tyranny asserts opinions that nearly everyone agrees with, IQ and Populations reviews facts with which nearly everyone disagrees.
So, is this really true? Yes. Is this uncomfortable? Yes. Is this important? Yes.
On the Persistence of Bad Design... |
As a programmer you are constantly making design decisions. Some are small, some are big. Some have little effect, some have larger effect. And every once in a while you make some decisions which seem small, but have a huge effect. If these decisions are made badly, then it affects many other people for years to come.
Web 2.0, "Live" and other meaningless jargon |
Do you hate business jargon as much as I do? Blech.
A classic example of meaningless jargon is "Web 2.0". Nobody knows what it means, it doesn't mean anything.
And for an unbelievable example of jargon run amuck, consider Microsoft's recent "Live" announcement. Talk about meaningless blather.
second gear |
Back in the dawn of time, when I was 30, my life was somewhat in limbo. I was in between marriages, and decided to take a creative writing class at a local college. I wrote an essay called "Second Gear" in one go, and I am absurdly proud of it; the feelings ring as true for me today, fifteen years later, as they did then. Makes me want to go ride the ol' Santa Susana pass again (although now I'd have my 15lb Kestrel with 18 gears).
Anyway here it is, for your reading amusement, Second Gear...
losing something |
I had a random thought last night which I thought I'd share. There is a visceral human reaction to losing something. People never ever want to give up something they feel they already have. This is not a cold logical calculation, even if you give people something which is way more valuable than the thing you're taking away, they hesitate. (This is why FREE is the most powerful word in marketing :)
Please click to continue reading...
estimating in meatspace |
I am really good at estimating. By which I mean, I can estimate anything, even if my estimates are not accurate. If you ask me for an estimate – on anything – I can give you one. I never let absence of facts stand in my way.
However, many people are horrible at estimating. You ask them for an estimate – on anything – and they can’t do it. They don’t know where to start. Even if they should be able to estimate something, based on their experience and knowledge and the availability of facts, they just can’t do it. It isn’t that they don’t want to commit – they might say that’s why, though – it is because they honestly can’t make an estimate.
Recently I’ve found a great trick. You can help people form estimates by using binary searching. People are much better at comparisons than they are at estimating. This is true even though all you need to do to form an estimate is iterative comparisons.
how to fix the tort system |
BusinessWeek had a great cover story: How to Fix the Tort System. If you're a regular reader you know this is a subject near and dear to my heart.
BW offers a four-point plan:
- Pay for Performance. "Solution: Reverse the economics of class-action settlements. Plaintiffs' lawyers should be paid after victims collect their money -- not before." This has been my favorite; make behavior which is undesirable unprofitable, and people won't engage in it. Even lawyers.
- Penalties that Sting. "Simply rewriting the rules only solves part of this problem, though. An equally important step is for judges to rise to the challenge and use their disciplinary powers. For too long, a cozy, protect-the-guild mentality has protected exploitative attorneys from serious punishment." Okay, I'll buy that. But I think (1) is a better driver than (2). {People don't wait at green lights because they'll get a ticket, they wait because otherwise they'll hit other cars.}
- Curb the Duplication. "The first [idea] would be eliminating punitive damages for injuries caused by products that have been approved by regulators. A second idea is giving judges explicit authority to reject class actions that duplicate ongoing regulatory initiatives." This helps businesses by eliminating multiple jeopardy.
- Exiting the Tort System. "These three changes would solve many of the tort system's genuine problems, but not all of them. There are rare issues that need to be removed from the courts -- with all of their elaborate procedural rules -- and directed into specialized administrative tribunals." So be it.
These are good suggestions, but I think they missed one, too:
- Loser Pays. Make the party which brings a frivolous suit pay the legal expenses of the defendant, and there will be fewer frivolous suits, because there will be fewer lawyers willing to take such suits on contingency. Make the party which loses a legitimate suit pay the legal expenses of the plaintiff, and there will be more reasonable settlements, resulting in lower legal fees for the representing lawyers.
I sure hope something changes. This is the biggest problem we have in American business today.
inclusive fitness |
I found this cool presentation by Keith Goodnight: Kin Selection and Inclusive Fitness.
It begins with the problem of altruism, examines group selection (and rejects it), makes the key distinction between genes and organisms (replicators and vehicles), examines the greenbeard effect, explains Hamilton's rule (conditions under which gene for altruism will be favored by selection), and finally ends up with inclusive fitness:
"An individual's fitness is not based only on its own reproduction but also on all the effects it has on other individuals, weighted by their relatedness to it."
If you're at all interested in these things, check it out!
the nuclear option |
Relax, this is not a post about filibusters or approving Supreme Court justices. No, this is about nuclear energy.
It seems that intelligent people of all stripes are converging on the nuclear option. Which is terrific, because the alternative - continuing to burn oil until it is gone - is no option at all.
Click here to continue reading...
Tort reform now! |
I just read something which boils my blood, and needed to share it.
When private parties prevail upon the court system to settle a dispute, is called a “tort”. The U.S. tort system is badly in need of reform. Continue reading...
non-realtime dreams |
Last night I had an upset stomach. Really bad, like I ate something bad. I was barely asleep and barely awake all night. I usually don't dream - or I guess I should say I usually don't remember dreams - but I had quite a few last night. I was struck particularly that dreams don't take place in realtime. At one point I was awake at 4:00, then fell asleep and dreamed, and then awoke at 4:15. The dream was incredibly detailed and took place over the course of hours - even now I can remember many more details than could possibly have occurred in 15 minutes. (I broke my leg skiing and was roaming a hospital trying to find a doctor to set it, if you must know... I finally found one, and they finally had me about to have my leg operated on, and they began to give me anesthetic, and I woke up.)
Anyway this is a weird capability of the human mind, that it can play through events in non-realtime. It just shows that "sensory time" differs from "CPU time" in organic brains, just as it does in computers. I've written device drivers and they are always waiting on the device, the world of atoms is much slower than the world of bits. Someday we'll have the ability to interface to human brains, both for input (adding information to brains from the external world), and for output (measuring what brains are doing, or even following along with what they're thinking). Weird to think that you could "learn" something via a dreamlike experience in much less time than it would take if it really happened. Shades of the Matrix!
think green, think nuclear |
If you're a regular reader you know that I'm a green in wolf's clothing. I think we must get better at preserving our environment and slowing our consumption of natural resources. And I also think - gasp! - that nuclear power is the key to this. Continue reading...
alternative entropy |
Ottmar Liebert noted Alternative Energy: "The world's biggest solar power plant went online in Mulhausen, Germany this month, putting out 6.3 megawatts of power." From my comments on his blog:
Unfortunately this illustrates why solar power is NOT an interesting alternative source of entropy. Mulhausen now has the world's biggest solar power plant, but at 6MW it is about 1/100th the power of even a small nuclear facility. For example the San Onofre plant in Southern California was turned on in 1983, and has two 1100MW units, together providing roughly 400 times more power than the Mulhausen solar plant. San Onofre is considered small and old by nuclear standards. France currently has 59 reactors with an aggregate capacity of 63GW.
unintelligent design |
There are people who do not believe the theory of evolution is sufficient to explain the existence of the world as we know it. They prefer to believe in creationism, the idea that there is a deity who created the world. I have no problem with people who wish to believe this, it is their prerogative, of course, just as they may chose to believe the Sun orbits the Earth, or that the Earth is 6,000 years old.
I only ask that they admit they are choosing to believe in “magic” instead of rational facts and logical reasoning. Please click for more...
language talks |
I just encountered Paul Graham's Great Hackers. Quite thought-provoking, including the notion that in choosing a platform, you are choosing a culture...
no equals = wrong |
"If it doesn't start with an equal sign, it's wrong." This is a first for me; spreadsheet nerdliness. But there's a larger point, too. Read on...
In the Wet |
One of my favorite books of all time is Nevil Shute's In the Wet. If you haven't read it, you should. It defies an easy synopsis but it is a wonderful engrossing read and is definitely thought provoking. It takes place in "the future", which given that the book was written in 1952 is now our recent past.
Global Economic Inequality |
Sometimes a picture is worth much more than 1,000 words. The Economist ran a great story recently about global economic inequality: More or Less Equal? The graphs which accompany the story are terrific, and thought provoking...
More Party Politics |
The other day I lamented that the U.S. two-party system is suboptimal, and suggested that proportional voting might enable minority parties to have more influence, thereby enabling more innovation among candidates.
Be careful what you wish for! I received an email from Ivan-Assen Ivanov, a Bulgarian, reporting that they have proportional representation, and it isn't working out.
Two-Party Politics |
Do you think the U.S. two-party system is optimal? I don't. It would be great if there were more points of view represented, more opportunity for candidates with a unique perspective which don't naturally fit into either mainstream party.
Religion vs IQ |
razib and godless are bored, so they plot and graph "religion important" vs. IQ for different countries. The bottom line: "religion and IQ are strongly negatively correlated (-.886)."
The "under the skin" game |
When I was a kid, I had a subscription to a magazine called Highlights. I remember one little article which stayed with me my whole life, called "the under the skin game"...
The Joy of Craftsmanship |
I just love real craftsmanship. It goes beyond mere doing things right, it extends into art...
Confidence |
So, Arnold Schwarzenegger is California's new governor. What is it about Arnold that caused so many people to vote against the incumbent, and for him? Confidence.
Unless... |
The Lorax has been each one of my kids' favorite story at a certain point. Meg is six, and it has been her favorite for about two years. This amazing story by Dr. Suess (Theodore Geisel) was published in 1971, but its message rings as loud and true 32 years later...
Adding Value |
I saw my good friend Paul last night, and he reinforced something I've been thinking recently. The most important thing you can do every day is add value.
And inspiring others to create value is a really efficient way to add value yourself. Of course there is something even more efficient, which is inspiring others to inspire others. That's why I wrote this... :)
Are You a Bright? |
Are you bright? Do you know what the question is asking?
A Bright is a person who has a naturalistic worldview
Yeah, I'm bright. I believe in a naturalistic world view. I believe everything can be explained rationally, logically, and scientifically, without resort to "magic". Continue reading...
SES and IQ heritability |
Back-to-school pop quiz: Why do poor children, and especially black poor children, score lower on average than their middle-class and white counterparts on IQ tests and other measures of cognitive performance?
That's the lead question in a Washington Post article about a new study that appears to show that IQ heritability varies significantly with socioeconomic status.
This would be a very important finding if true...
Blind Watchmakings |
I recently discovered The Insect Company website, which has fascinating photo galleries of beautiful and interesting insects. I was awestruck by these wonderful examples of Darwinism in action; for me this was a religious experience. In paging through these photos, I was reminded of the amazing software Richard Dawkins wrote to accompany his 1986 classic, "The Blind Watchmaker"...
IQ and Populations |
Combining National IQ data from Richard Lynn's and Tatu Vanhanen's "Intelligence and the Wealth and Poverty of Nations" with world population data from the U.S. Census, we can quantify the decrease in world IQ over time. The consequences of this overall decrease in world IQ have yet to be quantified, but they are bound to be significant...
Bloggers as Filters |
Bloggers are interesting sources of information and analysis, and entertainment as well. But did you ever think of them as filters?
Arnold and Proposition 13 |
Earlier I reported that columnist Dan Gillmor wrote Why I Might Vote for Schwarzenegger. Apparently Warren Buffet, an advisor to Arnold in his gubernatorial campaign, mentioned that if elected Arnold might consider overturning Proposition 13. This has caused a stir, with many people feeling it would be political suicide to mention during the campaign. And maybe it is... but, Proposition 13 has been a horrible thing for the state of California, and overturning it would be a great good thing.
Gravity Inversion |
Today I was riding my bike, when suddenly I got this weird feeling. About gravity...
People over 30 should be dead |
What was M.E.? |
My post about Mitochondrial Eve attracted a bunch of interest - thank you! - and several people asked a key question: what species was ME?
Mitochondrial Eve |
Of all the women who have ever lived, there was one woman who was special. She was the common maternal ancestor of all women currently alive. She was "Mitochondrial Eve".
Human Pattern Recognition |
Among all the remarkable things that we humans can do, effortlessly, that takes huge amounts of effort to do any other way; our image pattern recognition is perhaps the most awesome.
Google and Escher |
If you visited Google yesterday, you might have been intrigued by their logo; a grayscale drawing which showed a couple of hands drawing each other.
This was their very cool way of celebrating M.C.Escher's birthday...
Child Tax Credits and the Mutilated Beggar Effect |
How the child tax credit which is part of the Bush administration's proposed tax cut is an example of the "mutilated beggar effect", as I argue against motherhood...
Ceci n'est pas Mimi |
I saw an interesting post on Marc Cantor's site: a picture of his daughter Mimi, next to a computer which has a picture of a computer, which has a picture of Mimi. Marc asks "Which Reality is Real?" Of course this is a trick - the answer is "none of the above"!
Which brings us to Magritte's "The Human Condition"...
Job Seeking Advice |
I have a friend who's seeking a job after having run his own business for many years. I'm not the greatest job seeker in the world nor the most experienced, so this could be quite wrong, but here's my advice to him...
God and Beauty |
Let's consider the nature of beauty. We'll explore atheism and the anthropic principle, the natural selection of beauty, selection of mates, and other stuff. It is not really about God, but it sort of is. You'll see...
Emergent Properties |
In which we discuss emergent properties vs. explicit properties, take Marvin Minsky to task about artificial intelligence, diss RDF and the semantic web, and relate image processing to water. Read more...
A Perfect Day |
I'm riding my bike: the sun on the lake, a light breeze, pretty girls, and my daughter's birthday party coming up... it all makes for A Perfect Day...
Books and Wine |
Two of my favorite things are books and wine. They even go together; what could be finer than curling up with a great book and a nice glass of wine.
Amazingly, there are many similarities between these two apparently unrelated things...
Try, or Try Not |
Try, or Try Not... For everything there is to do, the easy way to fail is simply not to try. If you can feel good about yourself for your effort - regardless of the results - then you can always succeed.
On Blame |
Blame... What a strange concept, right?
Lying |
Lying is all about intent... When you say something you know isn't true in order to influence others, you're lying.
"Tyranny" Revisited |
A week ago I posted a little article called The Tyranny of Email, giving some tips for improving personal productivity. It generated a terrific response, and I herewith post the most interesting observations and comments...
I am an Iterator |
I am an iterator. When I make something, I don't just make it and go on. I make it, then I remake it, then I remake it again, and iteratively improve it until I'm happy. I annoy myself sometimes, I am so unwilling or unable to leave something as it is...
The Tyranny of Email |
If you're reading this, you're online, which means you may be a victim of the tyranny of email...
This War |
In case you'd like to know Saddam Hussein a little better, please read Tales of the Tyrant in The Atlantic. And related - a friend emailed a rant which I've posted anonymously: This War...
Correlation vs. Causality |
A quick rant on the difference between correlation and causality which is important in many things, including studies of people...
The Role of Inspectors |
The U.S. government is patiently explaining that inspectors are not spies...
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Re:Cycling
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Greatest Hits
Correlation vs. Causality
The Tyranny of Email
Unnatural Selection
Lying
Aperio's Mission = Automating Pathology
On Blame
Try, or Try Not
Books and Wine
Google and Blogs
Emergent Properties
God and Beauty
Moving Mount Fuji
Ceci n'est pas Mimi
The Nest
Rock 'n Roll
IQ and Populations
Are You a Bright?
Adding Value
Confidence
The Joy of Craftsmanship
The Emperor's New Code
Toy Story
The Return of the King
Religion vs IQ
Most Spectacular Photos of 2003
In the Wet
the big day
visiting Titan
unintelligent design
Shorthorn
the nuclear option